Created by Susanne Stock
#favoritemodels No. 28 – WRAP – Four hurdles to good decisions and how to overcome them.
Decisions are always made under uncertainty. Especially in today’s complex world, nobody fully understands how things are connected and it is almost impossible to penetrate all the information and background.
At the same time, I cannot predict with certainty what impact my decisions will have on me and my environment. Managers in particular are expected to face up to these risks and uncertainties. This requires courage and some ideas on how to organize and make decisions effectively.
The following process, called the WRAP model, developed by Stanford professors Chip and Dan Heath, is a helpful process for making better decisions. In their book Decisive, which is based on numerous studies on decision-making, they divide the decision-making process into four steps. In each of these steps, there are typical obstacles that often go unnoticed. They propose a strategy to counteract these obstacles:
Step 1: You are faced with an important decision and are looking for a direct solution. In doing so, you run the risk of overlooking options and possibly pursuing the first, but not the best, idea. To avoid this, you should expand your options. Chip & Dan Heath call this: Widen your options
What does that mean in concrete terms? A too narrow view focuses on the obvious and leads to potentially important facts not being taken into account. We often ask: “Should I do this OR that?” Helpful methods for considering a wide range of options include, for example
- Multi-track thinking: Think AND, not OR.
You can ensure this by having your team come up with at least 3 options that serve as a basis for decision-making. You will get even more options if you conduct a brainstorming session in your team and consciously keep asking for new, different or even unconventional ideas. These preliminary considerations encourage openness to new ideas and it may be possible to develop a combination of different ideas. - Disappearing options test
Ask yourself and the team: What if all previous options were not feasible and we had to develop new options?
Step 2: You analyze your options and fall into the trap of confirming your previous ideas and assumptions instead of refuting them and thus testing them for “watertightness”. This so-called confirmation bias in turn leads to a narrowing of your options and to a (too) quick commitment to an obvious solution. It is therefore important to subject your assumptions to a reality check. Chip & Dan Heath call this: Reality-test your assumptions
What does that mean in concrete terms? Our unconscious tendency to gather information that confirms our initial assumptions can be circumvented by consciously applying various methods. For example:
- Ask refuting questions: Ask yourself, “What is the biggest obstacle to option A?”, ” If I fail with option A, what would be the reason?”
- Consider the opposite: Try to consider the exact opposite of your previous option. And: “Why could your previous preferred option be the completely wrong solution?”
Step 3: You make a decision and (unconsciously) let yourself be guided by short-term emotions. To avoid this, it is important to gain inner distance before making a decision. Chip & Dan Heath call this: Gain distance before you decide (Attain distance before deciding)
What does that mean in concrete terms? Important decisions often stir us up emotionally. The following reflections will help us not to be guided solely by these strong emotions:
- 10/10/10 experiment: Assuming you make a decision in favor of option A, how will you feel about it in 10 minutes? How in 10 months? And how in 10 years?
- Change of perspective: What advice would you give your colleague/best friend/successor in this situation? This change of perspective automatically creates distance.
Step 4: You may be very confident about your decision and future development and you are optimistic that you have done the right thing. And if things don’t go as planned? Then you just live with it. To prevent this over-optimism, it is helpful to prepare yourself to be wrong.
Chip & Dan Heath recommend in their model: Prepare to be wrong
What does that mean in concrete terms? When we assess the future, we focus on the obvious information and draw our conclusions from it.
- Pre-mortem (reverse worst case scenario): Play through the question: A year has passed and we have completely failed with Option A. Why? And what can we do now to prevent this?
- Set a ripcord: Make a note of what specific milestones should occur if option A works well. Make sure to regularly check the occurrence or non-occurrence so that you can pull the ripcord in an emergency and develop a new solution option.
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Author
Susanne Stock
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